I've been saying this for months: the president is not remotely a lock for re-election. He won, under the most interesting string of lucky events, in 2008. He can't count on another crisis that already has a scapegoat, a weak opponent, and a tremendously divisive and unpopular incumbent...someone other than him, I mean.
Given ALL of that, plus the cachet of being the first black president, plus a $300 million cash advantage over his opponent...he still won only 53%.
Two years ago, Republicans upset with Bush gave him a chance. Independents gave him a chance. Students turned out because of the movement nature of his appeal. Women voted for him solidly, as did minorities.
He might be lucky to get McCain's 46% in two years.